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War Point (USA)
For the last two years, the conflict between the US and China has dominated the economic and financial-market debate—with good reason. And the weaponisation of US trade policy to target perceived company-specific threats such as Huawei has broadened the front in this battle. From the start, it has been a political conflict fought with economic weapons, and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. What that means, of course, is that the economic and financial-market outlook basically hinges on the political dynamic between the US and China. While the deal, if ever consummated, will have next to no material economic impact, it provides a strong hint that Trump has finally had enough of this trade war. China, for its part, would also like nothing more than to end the trade war. Politics is obviously very different in a one-party state, but the Chinese leadership is not about to capitulate on its core principles of sovereignty and its aspirational mid-century goals of rejuvenation, growth, and development. At the same time, there can be no mistaking downward pressures on the economy. But, with Chinese policymakers determined to stay the course of their three-year deleveraging campaign—an important self-inflicted source of the current slowdown—they should be all the more eager to address the trade-related pressures brought about by the conflict with the US.
Stock Market
The possibility that Turkish troops may intervene directly in Libya's simmer civil war is growing after lawmakers in Ankara approved a military cooperation deal that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed with his Libyan counterpart Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj last month. This reflects Turkey's apparent growing geopolitical ambitions, which have also recently prompted a crisis over maritime boundaries and resource rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and is inflaming a growing divide with traditional allies, chiefly the United States. On Dec. This deal reaffirmed the Turkish government's commitment to providing military assistance and materiel support to the internationally-recognized Government of National According GNA based in Tripoli. It also leaves open the possibility for the Turkish military to deploy its own "quick reaction force" in direct support of the GNA. The Turkish and Libyan leaders had met again in Turkey on Dec. The Turkish President had also decried Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar, who as "not a legitimate leader" and "representative of an illegal structure. You can read more about Haftar and the origins of the current Libyan conflict in this past War Zone piece. The LNA had tried and failed to do the same in April. Haftar claims that the LNA is the country's legitimate military and that he is simply fighting terrorists and Islamist militants on behalf of the central government.
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